Aston Villa 2-1 West Ham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 10 Jan 2025

📅10/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.67
6+ Goals
10%
6.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.1
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
14%
4.2
X/2
9%
9.8
X/X
12%
6.49
2/1
8%
20.1
2/2
12%
6.67
2/X
7%
15.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 11% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
57%
-14.7pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.9pp
32%
Away Win
21%
+10.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY West Ham United EU Bookmakers 25%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.27/2.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/2.17
-37% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
367 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
Crosses 16.9
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY West Ham United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.30 xG 1.61
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
454 Passes 305
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.08.2024 West Ham United West Ham United 1-2 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
17.03.2024 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
22.10.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-1 HT 1-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
12.03.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
28.08.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-1 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
13.03.2022 West Ham United West Ham United 2-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
2-1
AWAY West Ham United
2.04 xG 0.77
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
416 Passes 268
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs West Ham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa nicked a narrow win over West Ham United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Aston Villa had 59% of the ball to West Ham United's 41%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.04 to 0.77 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aston Villa's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Aston Villa and 1.17 for West Ham United.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs West Ham United?

Aston Villa 2-1 West Ham United in the England - FA Cup on 10/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs West Ham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 42%, draw 26%, West Ham United 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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