Excelsior 1-0 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 Jan 2025

📅10/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.61
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.48
6+ Goals
14%
5.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.89
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.55
X/1
19%
4.13
X/2
8%
11.7
X/X
9%
7.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.5
2/2
8%
7.76
2/X
5%
15.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.5 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.1pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.0pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-12.4pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
2.06/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.71
+25% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
402 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 73%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
20.9 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Dordrecht
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.39 xG 1.24
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
403 Passes 287
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 14
30 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.09.2024 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
18.12.2021 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
10.09.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 3-1 HT 0-1 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
30.04.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 2-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
11.09.2020 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-3 HT 1-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
10.01.2020 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-1 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-0
AWAY Dordrecht
1.25 xG 0.54
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
351 Passes 240
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 8
26 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior nicked a narrow win over Dordrecht 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Excelsior had 57% of the ball to Dordrecht's 43%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 1.25 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Excelsior and 1.00 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Dordrecht?

Excelsior 1-0 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 57%, draw 21%, Dordrecht 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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