Hapoel Eran Hadera 1-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.86
2-3 Goals
35%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.98
6+ Goals
10%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 35% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
3%
X/1
22%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+7.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.0pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hapoel Eran Hadera EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Hapoel Tel Aviv EU Bookmakers 50%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.50/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.88
+21% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
14.1 Crosses 13.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hapoel Eran Hadera
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.00 xG 0.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 3
383 Passes 337
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
09.12.2023 Hapoel Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-1 HT 1-0 Hapoel Eran Hadera Hapoel Eran Hadera İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hapoel Eran Hadera
1-0
AWAY Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.62 xG 0.39
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 1
182 Passes 294
62% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 8
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hapoel Eran Hadera vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Eran Hadera squeezed past Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hapoel Tel Aviv at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Hapoel Eran Hadera had 42% of the ball to Hapoel Tel Aviv's 58%, shots finished 12-3, expected goals 1.62 to 0.39 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hapoel Eran Hadera's control.

What was the final score of Hapoel Eran Hadera vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?

Hapoel Eran Hadera 1-0 Hapoel Tel Aviv in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hapoel Eran Hadera vs Hapoel Tel Aviv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hapoel Tel Aviv win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hapoel Eran Hadera 35%, draw 24%, Hapoel Tel Aviv 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hapoel Tel Aviv) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hapoel Tel Aviv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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