Novara 1-0 Virtus Verona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.42
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
4.81
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-4.6pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.2pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Virtus Verona EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +7%
1.04/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.01
-16% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Virtus Verona
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2023 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona 1-1 HT 1-1 Novara Novara İTC
11.05.2023 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona 3-0 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
21.01.2023 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona 0-1 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
17.09.2022 Novara Novara 0-0 HT 0-0 Virtus Verona Virtus Verona İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
1-0
AWAY Virtus Verona
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Novara vs Virtus Verona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara squeezed past Virtus Verona 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Novara made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Novara had 54% of the ball to Virtus Verona's 46%, shots finished 20-5.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Novara and 1.00 for Virtus Verona.

What was the final score of Novara vs Virtus Verona?

Novara 1-0 Virtus Verona in the Italy - Serie C on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Virtus Verona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Novara 35%, draw 30%, Virtus Verona 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
10 Feb 2024
18:15 Pro Patria vs Pergolettese Analysis →
18:15 Pineto vs Lucchese Analysis →
18:15 Sassari Torres vs Juventus II Analysis →
20:30 Arzignano Valchiampo vs GIANA Erminio Analysis →
20:30 Atalanta II vs Vicenza Analysis →
20:30 Fiorenzuola vs Pro Vercelli Analysis →