Padova Calcio 1-1 Trento AC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 10 Feb 2024

📅10/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.34
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.6
No
60%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
4.24
6+ Goals
10%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 35% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
70%
-15.2pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.3pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+8.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
34%
+6.0pp
60%
BTTS No
66%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Trento AC EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.67/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.34/1.31
-8% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +31%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
389 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 193 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Trento AC
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Trento AC Trento AC 0-3 HT 0-2 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
08.04.2023 Trento AC Trento AC 0-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
04.12.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 1-0 Trento AC Trento AC İTC
20.02.2022 Trento AC Trento AC 2-2 HT 1-2 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
17.10.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 1-0 Trento AC Trento AC İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
1-1
AWAY Trento AC
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Trento AC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio and Trento AC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Padova Calcio at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 50% of the ball to Trento AC's 50%, shots finished 18-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Padova Calcio and 0.80 for Trento AC.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Trento AC?

Padova Calcio 1-1 Trento AC in the Italy - Serie C on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Trento AC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 55%, draw 26%, Trento AC 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Padova Calcio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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