St. Mirren 1-1 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Cup, 10 Feb 2025

St. Mirren
1-1 HT 1-0
Hearts
📅10/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Scotland - Cup – 2024/2025

St. Mirren vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 30% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Mirren v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 45%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
0.79/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.98/0.05
-47% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
237 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0

St. Mirren vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Hearts
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.06 xG 1.29
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
224 Passes 342
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Hearts Hearts 4-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
21.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 2-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
15.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
06.04.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
23.12.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
23.09.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP

St. Mirren 1-1 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
1-1
AWAY Hearts
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
14 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren and Hearts shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, St. Mirren had 52% of the ball to Hearts's 48%, shots finished 12-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for St. Mirren and 1.83 for Hearts.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Hearts?

St. Mirren 1-1 Hearts in the Scotland - Cup on 10/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 34%, draw 28%, Hearts 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hearts), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →