Hearts 4-0 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 19 Oct 2024

Hearts
4-0 HT 1-0
St. Mirren
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Hearts vs St. Mirren Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
23%
3.58
6+ Goals
13%
14.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.58 — our 23% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.33
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.75
X/1
14%
4.01
X/2
13%
8.62
X/X
12%
4.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.0
2/2
10%
6.72
2/X
6%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hearts v St. Mirren — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.77/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.40
+10% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 68%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
25.0 Crosses 24.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Hearts vs St. Mirren Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
2W-2D-2L
AWAY St. Mirren
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 1.06
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
350 Passes 210
77% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 2-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
15.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
06.04.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
23.12.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
23.09.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
13.05.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 2-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
POST-MATCH Hearts vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts ran out comfortable winners over St. Mirren 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hearts and 1.33 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Hearts vs St. Mirren?

Hearts 4-0 St. Mirren in the Scotland - Premiership on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hearts 47%, draw 24%, St. Mirren 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKP More Scotland - Premiership
19 Oct 2024
17:00 St. Johnstone vs Ross County Analysis →
17:00 Motherwell vs Dundee FC Analysis →
17:00 Dundee United vs Hibernian Analysis →
17:00 Celtic vs Aberdeen Analysis →