Motherwell 0-1 Dundee FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
24%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.2
6+ Goals
13%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.68
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
18%
4.54
X/2
7%
7.16
X/X
12%
5.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
23.15
2/2
11%
5.04
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
47%
+4.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
24%
Away Win
28%
-4.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.55/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.38
+10% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
23.1 Crosses 20.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Dundee FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.01 xG 1.13
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
215 Passes 256
64% Pass Accuracy 65%
20 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-3 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
02.12.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 3-3 HT 1-2 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
05.08.2023 Dundee FC Dundee FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
05.03.2022 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 1-1 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
27.11.2021 Dundee FC Dundee FC 3-0 HT 2-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
28.08.2021 Motherwell Motherwell 1-0 HT 1-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
0-1
AWAY Dundee FC
0.56 xG 0.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
272 Passes 309
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs Dundee FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dundee FC nicked a narrow win over Motherwell 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Motherwell at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Motherwell had 48% of the ball to Dundee FC's 52%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.56 to 0.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motherwell had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Motherwell and 1.67 for Dundee FC.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs Dundee FC?

Motherwell 0-1 Dundee FC in the Scotland - Premiership on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs Dundee FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 52%, draw 25%, Dundee FC 24%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motherwell) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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