Pumas UNAM 1-0 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 10 Feb 2025

📅10/02/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.53
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
27%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 33% vs market 28.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
61%
-17.2pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.5pp
27%
Away Win
15%
+11.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.3pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 18%
-4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.82/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.60
-8% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.3 Crosses 15.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.35 xG 0.62
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
376 Passes 304
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
06.04.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-4 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
09.07.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
28.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
27.03.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-0
AWAY Mazatlan
0.70 xG 0.52
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 5
422 Passes 286
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM squeezed past Mazatlan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pumas UNAM as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 59% of the ball to Mazatlan's 41%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.70 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pumas UNAM and 0.50 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Mazatlan?

Pumas UNAM 1-0 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 10/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 44%, draw 29%, Mazatlan 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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