Kocaelispor 1-2 Tuzlaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 36% vs market 32.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.34
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.15
X/1
17%
3.73
X/2
6%
8.79
X/X
14%
4.43
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
7.61
2/X
7%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.1pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Tuzlaspor EU Bookmakers 24%
-16% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.49/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.38
-10% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
22.6 Crosses 10.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Tuzlaspor
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.74 xG 0.61
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
271 Passes 365
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2023 Tuzlaspor 1-2 HT 1-2 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
19.02.2022 Tuzlaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
24.09.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-0 HT 0-0 Tuzlaspor T1L
29.03.2014 Tuzlaspor 4-2 HT 1-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor S3-3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
1-2
AWAY Tuzlaspor
1.18 xG 1.52
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
352 Passes 269
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Tuzlaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuzlaspor squeezed past Kocaelispor 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Kocaelispor at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 56% of the ball to Tuzlaspor's 44%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.18 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Kocaelispor had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Kocaelispor and 1.25 for Tuzlaspor.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Tuzlaspor?

Kocaelispor 1-2 Tuzlaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Tuzlaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 50%, draw 27%, Tuzlaspor 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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