İstanbulspor 1-2 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
47%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.22
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.27
1/2
6%
21.85
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
11%
7.67
X/2
20%
4.49
X/X
14%
5.51
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.52
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-1.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İstanbulspor EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 53%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.14/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.16
-3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
15.6 Crosses 23.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İstanbulspor
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.34 xG 1.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
398 Passes 323
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.10.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-1 HT 1-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor TSL
20.05.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-0 HT 0-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor TSL
28.12.2022 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 2-1 HT 1-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
05.08.2017 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 3-1 HT 0-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor HAZ
26.09.2012 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 1-3 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TÜK
07.04.2007 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-1 HT 2-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İstanbulspor
1-2
AWAY Kasımpaşa
0.57 xG 2.05
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 9
273 Passes 395
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa nicked a narrow win over İstanbulspor 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kasımpaşa as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, İstanbulspor had 43% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 57%, shots finished 8-24, expected goals 0.57 to 2.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kasımpaşa's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for İstanbulspor and 2.17 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?

İstanbulspor 1-2 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İstanbulspor vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split İstanbulspor 26%, draw 26%, Kasımpaşa 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kasımpaşa), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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