Kayserispor 1-1 Hatayspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 10 Mar 2024

📅10/03/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.53
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.8
X/1
20%
4.29
X/2
9%
7.83
X/X
15%
4.86
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
10%
5.86
2/X
5%
14.3
Value flag · 1/X at 13.8 — our 11% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.9pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.5pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.62/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.58
+2% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
24.1 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kayserispor
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Hatayspor
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.80 xG 1.73
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
285 Passes 394
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2023 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-2 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
16.09.2022 Hatayspor Hatayspor 0-4 HT 0-2 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
04.02.2022 Kayserispor Kayserispor 4-3 HT 1-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
19.09.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 2-1 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
07.03.2021 Hatayspor Hatayspor 1-3 HT 0-2 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
08.11.2020 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-1 HT 0-0 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kayserispor
1-1
AWAY Hatayspor
1.75 xG 0.27
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
374 Passes 221
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kayserispor vs Hatayspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kayserispor and Hatayspor shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Kayserispor at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Kayserispor had 60% of the ball to Hatayspor's 40%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 1.75 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Kayserispor and 1.33 for Hatayspor.

What was the final score of Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?

Kayserispor 1-1 Hatayspor in the Turkey - Super League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kayserispor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kayserispor 43%, draw 31%, Hatayspor 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kayserispor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kayserispor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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