PAOK 0-1 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 10 Mar 2024

PAOK
0-1 HT 0-1
Aris Saloniki
📅10/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2023/2024

PAOK vs Aris Saloniki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.71
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.27
6+ Goals
9%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
8%
17.0
X/1
25%
3.65
X/2
6%
12.9
X/X
10%
5.75
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
6%
10.4
2/X
8%
17.9
Value flag · 1/X at 17.0 — our 8% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-6.4pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.6pp
17%
Away Win
15%
+1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PAOK v Aris Saloniki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.81/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.33
+1% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +4%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 205 · 70%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
19.6 Crosses 11.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

PAOK vs Aris Saloniki Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.09 xG 0.77
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
304 Passes 290
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 2-1 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
17.09.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
30.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 3-2 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
19.03.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
04.01.2023 PAOK PAOK 1-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
04.09.2022 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-0 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN

PAOK 0-1 Aris Saloniki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
0-1
AWAY Aris Saloniki
0.68 xG 0.37
74% Ball Possession 26%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
575 Passes 156
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
37 Box Touches 9
30 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PAOK vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki edged past PAOK 1-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. PAOK carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, PAOK had 74% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 26%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 0.68 to 0.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for PAOK and 0.83 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of PAOK vs Aris Saloniki?

PAOK 0-1 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Super League on 10/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split PAOK 57%, draw 27%, Aris Saloniki 17%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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