Aris Saloniki 2-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
40%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.07
6+ Goals
10%
19.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 31% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
19%
6.65
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
5%
14.65
X/1
9%
8.16
X/2
15%
4.13
X/X
12%
4.13
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
18%
2.53
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · 1/1 at 6.65 — our 19% vs market 10.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
23%
+12.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
40%
Away Win
50%
-9.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 54%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.05/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.68
+30% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
12.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
12.2 Crosses 18.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
1W-2D-3L
AWAY PAOK
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.64 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
280 Passes 283
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
17.09.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
30.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 3-2 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
19.03.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
04.01.2023 PAOK PAOK 1-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
04.09.2022 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 0-0 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
11.05.2022 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
2-1
AWAY PAOK
1.17 xG 0.94
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
255 Passes 400
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki squeezed past PAOK 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 40% — and on the day Aris Saloniki made the difference. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 41% of the ball to PAOK's 59%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.17 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.00 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs PAOK?

Aris Saloniki 2-1 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated an PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 36%, draw 24%, PAOK 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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