Santos Laguna 2-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 10 Mar 2025

📅10/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
45%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.36
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.73
6+ Goals
11%
7.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+4.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
45%
Away Win
50%
-5.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 55%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -15%
1.28/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.02
-20% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -36%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
318 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 82%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
20.6 Crosses 15.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos Laguna
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Leon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.22 xG 1.68
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
244 Passes 414
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 1-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
28.01.2024 Leon Leon 3-2 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
27.11.2023 Leon Leon 3-2 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
09.10.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
20.03.2023 Leon Leon 4-1 HT 3-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
19.08.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos Laguna
2-1
AWAY Leon
2.73 xG 1.03
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
310 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos Laguna vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos Laguna nicked a narrow win over Leon 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Leon at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Santos Laguna had 53% of the ball to Leon's 47%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 2.73 to 1.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Santos Laguna's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Santos Laguna and 2.33 for Leon.

What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Leon?

Santos Laguna 2-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 10/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos Laguna vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Santos Laguna 30%, draw 25%, Leon 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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