Leon 1-1 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.48
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.47
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.48 — our 26% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-9.4pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.6pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.6pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -22%
1.76/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.87
-5% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
381 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 76%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
20.4 Crosses 13.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.55 xG 1.35
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
412 Passes 246
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Leon Leon 3-2 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
27.11.2023 Leon Leon 3-2 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
09.10.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
20.03.2023 Leon Leon 4-1 HT 3-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
19.08.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
25.04.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-1
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.43 xG 0.80
60% Ball Possession 40%
25 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
382 Passes 235
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leon vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon and Santos Laguna couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Leon at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Leon had 60% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 40%, shots finished 25-10, expected goals 2.43 to 0.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Leon and 1.33 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Leon vs Santos Laguna?

Leon 1-1 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Leon 53%, draw 26%, Santos Laguna 21%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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