Necaxa 3-0 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.74
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
1.36/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.57
-1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 78%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
20.9 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.86 xG 1.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
263 Passes 368
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-2 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
17.09.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
13.03.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
23.07.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
08.01.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
23.08.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
3-0
AWAY FC Juarez
1.88 xG 0.77
30% Ball Possession 70%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
165 Passes 481
71% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa cruised past FC Juarez 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Necaxa had 30% of the ball to FC Juarez's 70%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.88 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Necaxa and 1.00 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs FC Juarez?

Necaxa 3-0 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 44%, draw 25%, FC Juarez 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Under 2.5
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