Tigres UANL 1-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Aug 2024

Tigres UANL
1-1 HT 0-0
Guadalajara
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.8
Over 2.5
40%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.76
6+ Goals
11%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 32% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
21%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.6pp
34%
Draw
27%
+7.2pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tigres UANL v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -10%
1.52/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.37
-1% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 81%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
21.4 Crosses 15.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Guadalajara
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.59 xG 0.98
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
406 Passes 291
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
22.01.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
29.10.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-4 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
29.05.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-3 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.05.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
26.02.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.09.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-4 HT 0-2 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK

Tigres UANL 1-1 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
1-1
AWAY Guadalajara
1.76 xG 1.31
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
284 Passes 279
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 25
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL and Guadalajara couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 34% / 26%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 50% of the ball to Guadalajara's 50%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.76 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Tigres UANL and 0.83 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara?

Tigres UANL 1-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 40%, draw 34%, Guadalajara 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tigres UANL), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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