Tijuana 3-4 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 10 Mar 2025

📅10/03/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.55
No
50%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.12
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
12%
8.19
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 30% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.9pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.1pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.7pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -17%
1.75/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.28
+17% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.4 Crosses 17.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Atlas
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.08 xG 1.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
341 Passes 332
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 3-0 HT 2-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
27.10.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
21.01.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
30.10.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
04.03.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
27.07.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-2 HT 1-2 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
3-4
AWAY Atlas
2.04 xG 2.27
65% Ball Possession 35%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
391 Passes 178
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas edged past Tijuana 4-3 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Tijuana at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Tijuana had 65% of the ball to Atlas's 35%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 2.04 to 2.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tijuana had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tijuana and 0.33 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Atlas?

Tijuana 3-4 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 10/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 43%, draw 29%, Atlas 27%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ Under 2.5
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