Finn Harps 3-2 Longford Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 10 May 2024

Finn Harps
3-2 HT 2-2
Longford Town
📅10/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Ireland - 1st Division – 2024

Finn Harps vs Longford Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.16
6+ Goals
8%
20.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 37% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.1pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Finn Harps v Longford Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Longford Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.38/0.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.53
-13% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Finn Harps vs Longford Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finn Harps
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Longford Town
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-3 HT 2-1 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
25.08.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
09.06.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-3 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
28.04.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-1 HT 1-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
18.03.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
19.11.2021 Finn Harps Finn Harps 5-0 HT 2-0 Longford Town Longford Town İRL
POST-MATCH Finn Harps vs Longford Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps nicked a narrow win over Longford Town 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Finn Harps as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Finn Harps had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Finn Harps and 1.00 for Longford Town.

What was the final score of Finn Harps vs Longford Town?

Finn Harps 3-2 Longford Town in the Ireland - 1st Division on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Finn Harps win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Finn Harps 46%, draw 25%, Longford Town 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Finn Harps) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Finn Harps) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İR1 More Ireland - 1st Division
10 May 2024
21:45 Cobh Ramblers vs Cork City Analysis →
21:45 Athlone Town vs Bray Wanderers Analysis →
21:45 Treaty United vs Wexford Youths Analysis →
21:45 Kerry vs Univ College Dublin Analysis →