AC Horsens 1-0 Naestved — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 10 May 2024

📅10/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
40%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.83
6+ Goals
11%
16.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.49
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
13%
5.18
X/2
12%
5.86
X/X
12%
4.33
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
20%
4.15
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
33%
+6.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Naestved EU Bookmakers 37%
-16% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -31%
1.40/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.64
-5% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -28%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 77%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
19.4 Crosses 19.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Naestved
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.54 xG 1.43
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
276 Passes 402
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
12.04.2024 Naestved Naestved 0-2 HT 0-2 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
03.03.2024 Naestved Naestved 1-1 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
25.08.2023 AC Horsens AC Horsens 3-0 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
29.11.2015 AC Horsens AC Horsens 1-3 HT 1-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
26.07.2015 Naestved Naestved 2-1 HT 0-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
1-0
AWAY Naestved
1.25 xG 0.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 11
325 Passes 341
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs Naestved
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens squeezed past Naestved 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day AC Horsens made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, AC Horsens had 48% of the ball to Naestved's 52%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.25 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for AC Horsens and 1.20 for Naestved.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Naestved?

AC Horsens 1-0 Naestved in the Denmark 1st Division on 10/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs Naestved?

Before kick-off our model rated an Naestved win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 34%, draw 26%, Naestved 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Naestved) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naestved) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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