Fortuna Sittard 1-0 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 May 2025

Fortuna Sittard
1-0 HT 1-0
NAC Breda
📅10/05/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.17
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.56
6+ Goals
8%
14.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.38
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
22%
4.41
X/2
10%
8.98
X/X
14%
4.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.65
2/2
12%
7.16
2/X
6%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.65 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Sittard v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 25%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
2.18/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.63
+45% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
22.2 Crosses 17.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.2

Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
2W-0D-4L
AWAY NAC Breda
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.43 xG 1.15
47% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
329 Passes 343
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.09.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
21.04.2019 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-1 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
16.09.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-3 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
13.03.2017 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-2 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
21.10.2016 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL2
19.02.2016 NAC Breda NAC Breda 5-0 HT 3-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL2

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-0
AWAY NAC Breda
1.47 xG 0.74
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
239 Passes 425
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard squeezed past NAC Breda 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fortuna Sittard as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 39% of the ball to NAC Breda's 61%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.47 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.33 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 47%, draw 27%, NAC Breda 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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