RKC Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 May 2025

RKC Waalwijk
3-1 HT 1-1
Heerenveen
📅10/05/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

RKC Waalwijk vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
28%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.75
1/2
12%
21.9
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
11%
7.3
X/2
8%
5.19
X/X
9%
5.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
29.5
2/2
22%
2.81
2/X
7%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 12% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.6pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -13%
1.34/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.49
-16% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
18.5 Crosses 17.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3

RKC Waalwijk vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.15 xG 1.28
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
330 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.11.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
30.03.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
12.08.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-1 HT 3-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
25.02.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-4 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
07.01.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
12.03.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 0-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL

RKC Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
3-1
AWAY Heerenveen
1.34 xG 0.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
331 Passes 330
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk beat Heerenveen 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Heerenveen at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 50% of the ball to Heerenveen's 50%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 1.34 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 1.00 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?

RKC Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 34%, draw 25%, Heerenveen 42%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heerenveen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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