NAC Breda 1-0 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 31% vs market 25.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
4.25
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
4%
13.6
X/1
9%
5.97
X/2
18%
4.98
X/X
17%
4.57
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
10%
3.3
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-4.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+7.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-7.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.7pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.58/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.00
+11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +65%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
26.4 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.41 xG 1.84
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
330 Passes 328
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2019 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-1 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
16.09.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-3 HT 1-1 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
13.03.2017 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-2 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
21.10.2016 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL2
19.02.2016 NAC Breda NAC Breda 5-0 HT 3-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL2
27.09.2015 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-2 HT 1-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-0
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
0.63 xG 0.61
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
369 Passes 330
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda squeezed past Fortuna Sittard 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; NAC Breda found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, NAC Breda had 52% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 48%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.63 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?

NAC Breda 1-0 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 37%, draw 28%, Fortuna Sittard 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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