AZ Alkmaar 9-1 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.8
2-3 Goals
36%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
17%
7.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.66
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.35
X/1
17%
3.66
X/2
7%
14.9
X/X
14%
7.02
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
21.1
2/2
7%
11.15
2/X
6%
18.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 13% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-13.7pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.7pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.5pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
2.02/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.08
+16% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
18.6 Crosses 15.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.88 xG 1.08
57% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
460 Passes 324
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
28.01.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
21.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
01.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
14.01.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
22.05.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
19.05.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
9-1
AWAY Heerenveen
5.23 xG 1.93
45% Ball Possession 55%
26 Total Shots 15
19 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
340 Passes 424
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar cruised past Heerenveen 9-1. Half-time: 2-1. 10 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 9-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 45% of the ball to Heerenveen's 55%, shots finished 26-15, expected goals 5.23 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.00 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen?

AZ Alkmaar 9-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 52%, draw 27%, Heerenveen 21%. The final score 9-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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