FC Astana 1-3 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
18%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
18%
Away Win
19%
-1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.3pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Astana EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 22%
-16% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.56/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.70
-4% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Astana
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tobol
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.11.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
08.05.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZKK
21.04.2024 FC Astana FC Astana 2-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
16.09.2023 FC Astana FC Astana 2-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
09.04.2023 Tobol Tobol 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
14.09.2022 FC Astana FC Astana 1-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH FC Astana vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol saw off FC Astana 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match lean was FC Astana at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Astana and 1.17 for Tobol.

What was the final score of FC Astana vs Tobol?

FC Astana 1-3 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super League on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Astana vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Astana win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split FC Astana 54%, draw 28%, Tobol 18%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Astana) ✗ BTTS No
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