Rakow Czestochowa 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 May 2025

Rakow Czestochowa
1-2 HT 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅10/05/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Rakow Czestochowa vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.52
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 29% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.19
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.2
X/1
19%
4.32
X/2
8%
9.72
X/X
10%
5.39
2/1
7%
22.45
2/2
11%
7.62
2/X
6%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rakow Czestochowa v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
1.77/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.76
+3% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
19.9 Crosses 15.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Rakow Czestochowa vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.16 xG 1.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
336 Passes 340
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
10.12.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-2 HT 2-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
22.07.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
24.02.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
14.08.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-2 HT 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
18.12.2021 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 5-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL

Rakow Czestochowa 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
1-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.39 xG 1.97
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
248 Passes 329
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok nicked a narrow win over Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rakow Czestochowa at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 46% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 54%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.39 to 1.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 1.50 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Rakow Czestochowa 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 47%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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