Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 10 May 2026

Burnley
2-2 HT 1-1
Aston Villa
📅10/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.09
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
59%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
14%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
17%
+3.1pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.0pp
59%
Away Win
62%
-3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 66%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.15/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.32
-14% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -26%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
272 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 81%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
16.1 Crosses 19.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Burnley vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.05 xG 2.16
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
282 Passes 411
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2025 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
30.12.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-2 HT 2-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
27.08.2023 Burnley Burnley 1-3 HT 0-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
19.05.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-1 HT 0-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
07.05.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-3 HT 0-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
27.01.2021 Burnley Burnley 3-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
2-2
AWAY Aston Villa
1.79 xG 1.44
33% Ball Possession 67%
15 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
192 Passes 456
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley and Aston Villa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Aston Villa carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Burnley had 33% of the ball to Aston Villa's 67%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 1.79 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Burnley and 2.33 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Aston Villa?

Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Burnley 20%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 59%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Aston Villa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
10 May 2026
16:00 Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Analysis →
16:00 Crystal Palace vs Everton Analysis →
18:30 West Ham United vs Arsenal Analysis →