Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 10 May 2026

Nottingham Forest
1-1 HT 0-0
Newcastle United
📅10/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.47
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 27% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.77
1/2
10%
24.35
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
8%
6.91
X/2
11%
5.1
X/X
9%
4.69
2/1
12%
31.5
2/2
16%
2.97
2/X
8%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
30%
+9.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-6.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.5pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.46/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.26
+27% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -20%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 83%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
20.5 Crosses 18.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.43 xG 2.16
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
294 Passes 438
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2025 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
23.02.2025 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-3 HT 4-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
10.11.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-3 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
28.08.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
10.02.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 2-2 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
26.12.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-3 HT 1-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
1-1
AWAY Newcastle United
1.10 xG 1.48
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 1
343 Passes 421
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 46% of the ball to Newcastle United's 54%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.10 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nottingham Forest and 2.33 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 10/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 39%, draw 25%, Newcastle United 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nottingham Forest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
10 May 2026
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