Finlandiya 2-1 Polonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 10 Jun 2025

Finlandiya
2-1 HT 1-0
Polonya
📅10/06/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Finlandiya vs Polonya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
45%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.9
No
61%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
16%
4.38
6+ Goals
8%
22.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 36% vs market 32.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.1
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
4%
13.9
X/1
14%
6.62
X/2
15%
5.0
X/X
19%
4.0
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
23%
3.29
2/X
4%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
45%
Away Win
41%
+4.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.8pp
61%
BTTS No
51%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Finlandiya v Polonya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finlandiya EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonya EU Bookmakers 45%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.64/2.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.50
+36% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / -23%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 82%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
12.1 Crosses 16.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Finlandiya vs Polonya Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finlandiya
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Polonya
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
0.37 xG 1.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
356 Passes 461
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 15
The Meetings
07.10.2020 Polonya Polonya 5-1 HT 3-0 Finlandiya Finlandiya HAZ
26.03.2016 Polonya Polonya 5-0 HT 3-0 Finlandiya Finlandiya HAZ
29.05.2010 Polonya Polonya 0-0 HT 0-0 Finlandiya Finlandiya HAZ
12.09.2007 Finlandiya Finlandiya 0-0 HT 0-0 Polonya Polonya AVR
02.09.2006 Polonya Polonya 1-3 HT 0-0 Finlandiya Finlandiya AVR

Finlandiya 2-1 Polonya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Finlandiya
2-1
AWAY Polonya
2.55 xG 1.51
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 4
318 Passes 349
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 37
11 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Finlandiya vs Polonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finlandiya squeezed past Polonya 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Polonya at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Finlandiya had 47% of the ball to Polonya's 53%, shots finished 13-24, expected goals 2.55 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Polonya led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Finlandiya and 2.20 for Polonya.

What was the final score of Finlandiya vs Polonya?

Finlandiya 2-1 Polonya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 10/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finlandiya vs Polonya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Polonya win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Finlandiya 29%, draw 26%, Polonya 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Polonya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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