Legia Varşova 1-0 Aktobe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 10 Jul 2025

📅10/07/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
55%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
24%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.23
Over
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.13
No
49%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.33
2-3
41%
1.87
4-5
24%
2.8
6+
11%
7.88
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.33 — our 24% vs market 17.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Legia Varşova win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
55%
Home Win
75%
-19.9pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.9pp
24%
Away Win
9%
+15.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.9pp
49%
BTTS No
57%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova The Market 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Aktobe The Market 11%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.73/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/2.51
-25% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
412 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Aktobe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
28.08.2014 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 1-0 Aktobe Aktobe AVL
21.08.2014 Aktobe Aktobe 0-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-0
AWAY Aktobe
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Aktobe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova nicked a narrow win over Aktobe 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 61% of the ball to Aktobe's 39%, shots finished 16-11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Legia Varşova and 0.00 for Aktobe.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Aktobe?

Legia Varşova 1-0 Aktobe in the UEFA Europa League on 10/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Aktobe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 55%, draw 21%, Aktobe 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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