Exeter City 1-0 Rotherham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.8
Over 2.5
39%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.81
6+ Goals
8%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 33% vs market 26.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.13
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
15%
5.77
X/2
12%
5.05
X/X
9%
4.5
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
23%
3.43
2/X
9%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.0pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Rotherham United EU Bookmakers 43%
-8% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.96/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.08
-54% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +46%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 69%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
21.2 Crosses 23.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Rotherham United
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
09.04.2013 Rotherham United Rotherham United 4-1 HT 3-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
24.11.2012 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-1 Rotherham United Rotherham United İN2
02.05.2009 Rotherham United Rotherham United 0-1 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
25.11.2008 Exeter City Exeter City 1-1 HT 1-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
1-0
AWAY Rotherham United
1.63 xG 1.35
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
354 Passes 215
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Rotherham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City nicked a narrow win over Rotherham United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rotherham United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Exeter City had 59% of the ball to Rotherham United's 41%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.63 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Rotherham United led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Exeter City and 1.50 for Rotherham United.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Rotherham United?

Exeter City 1-0 Rotherham United in the England - 1st Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Rotherham United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rotherham United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 32%, draw 27%, Rotherham United 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rotherham United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rotherham United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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