Bristol Rovers 1-0 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.7
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.4
X/1
14%
4.26
X/2
16%
7.13
X/X
10%
4.71
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
8%
5.51
2/X
7%
14.85
Value flag · 1/X at 14.4 — our 10% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.45/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.31
-11% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
256 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 65%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
20.0 Crosses 14.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol Rovers
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Northampton Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.53 xG 0.91
52% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
242 Passes 220
65% Pass Accuracy 61%
21 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
28.10.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
19.03.2022 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN2
13.11.2021 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
10.04.2021 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
03.10.2020 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-0 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol Rovers
1-0
AWAY Northampton Town
1.07 xG 0.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
220 Passes 183
61% Pass Accuracy 56%
22 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bristol Rovers vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol Rovers edged past Northampton Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bristol Rovers as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bristol Rovers had 52% of the ball to Northampton Town's 48%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.07 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol Rovers had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.00 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Bristol Rovers vs Northampton Town?

Bristol Rovers 1-0 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol Rovers vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bristol Rovers 44%, draw 27%, Northampton Town 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bristol Rovers), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bristol Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5
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