Empoli 4-1 Catanzaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.34
6+ Goals
14%
12.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
18%
4.0
X/2
9%
9.86
X/X
13%
5.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
23.15
2/2
10%
7.56
2/X
6%
15.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 12% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 23%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.72/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/2.46
-13% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.0 Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Catanzaro
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
02.05.2005 Catanzaro Catanzaro 2-3 HT 1-1 Empoli Empoli İTB
26.11.2004 Empoli Empoli 2-0 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
4-1
AWAY Catanzaro
2.72 xG 0.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
415 Passes 303
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 9
22 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Catanzaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Empoli swept aside Catanzaro 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Empoli as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Empoli had 57% of the ball to Catanzaro's 43%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.72 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Empoli had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Empoli and 1.00 for Catanzaro.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Catanzaro?

Empoli 4-1 Catanzaro in the Italy - Cup on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Catanzaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Empoli win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Empoli 52%, draw 24%, Catanzaro 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Empoli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Empoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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