Westerlo 4-3 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 10 Aug 2024

Westerlo
4-3 HT 3-1
Union Saint-Gilloise
📅10/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
9.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.08
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
11%
7.37
X/2
15%
4.61
X/X
10%
5.23
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.65
2/X
9%
13.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-3.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Westerlo v Union Saint-Gilloise — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Westerlo EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 51%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.71/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.01
+71% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
291 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
15.6 Crosses 16.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Westerlo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.50 xG 1.86
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
315 Passes 414
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.02.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-2 HT 1-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
29.10.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 1-3 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
25.02.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 4-2 HT 2-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
06.11.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 HT 0-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
19.03.2021 Westerlo Westerlo 2-2 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL2
20.12.2020 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL2

Westerlo 4-3 Union Saint-Gilloise — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Westerlo
4-3
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
3.72 xG 2.40
45% Ball Possession 55%
23 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
214 Passes 294
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Westerlo edged past Union Saint-Gilloise 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Union Saint-Gilloise at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Westerlo had 45% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 55%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 3.72 to 2.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Westerlo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Westerlo and 2.00 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Westerlo 4-3 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Westerlo vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Westerlo 29%, draw 27%, Union Saint-Gilloise 44%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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