Kızılyıldız 4-1 Novi Pazar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
12%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.59
Over 2.5
64%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
4%
X/X
6%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
82%
-12.6pp
18%
Draw
11%
+7.1pp
12%
Away Win
7%
+5.6pp
36%
Under 2.5
24%
+12.1pp
64%
Over 2.5
76%
-12.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kızılyıldız EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
2.81/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.15
+31% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 70%
48.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
28.7 Crosses 10.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kızılyıldız
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Novi Pazar
4.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.40 xG 0.49
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
429 Passes 190
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
34 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-3 HT 0-2 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
02.09.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 2-1 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
12.03.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 5-1 HT 2-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
11.09.2022 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 1-2 HT 1-1 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
11.05.2022 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 8-0 HT 5-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
06.03.2022 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 5-0 HT 4-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kızılyıldız
4-1
AWAY Novi Pazar
1.58 xG 0.70
63% Ball Possession 37%
22 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
465 Passes 247
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Kızılyıldız vs Novi Pazar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kızılyıldız swept aside Novi Pazar 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kızılyıldız as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kızılyıldız had 63% of the ball to Novi Pazar's 37%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 1.58 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kızılyıldız had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 4.17 goals for Kızılyıldız and 0.50 for Novi Pazar.

What was the final score of Kızılyıldız vs Novi Pazar?

Kızılyıldız 4-1 Novi Pazar in the Serbia - Super League on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kızılyıldız vs Novi Pazar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kızılyıldız win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Kızılyıldız 69%, draw 18%, Novi Pazar 12%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kızılyıldız), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kızılyıldız) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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