Kocaelispor 2-1 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 10 Aug 2024

📅10/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.8
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 34% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.3
X/1
13%
3.7
X/2
9%
9.43
X/X
16%
4.68
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
10%
8.04
2/X
5%
17.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.3pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 23%
-24% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.46/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.36
-20% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 72%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
22.6 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.09 xG 0.89
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
330 Passes 292
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.03.2024 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-0 HT 2-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
28.10.2023 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-2 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
20.03.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-1 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
24.10.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-2 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
31.01.2009 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-2 HT 0-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL
24.08.2008 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-1 HT 1-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
2-1
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
1.37 xG 0.81
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
310 Passes 290
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kocaelispor nicked a narrow win over Gençlerbirliği 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kocaelispor as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 51% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 49%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.37 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gençlerbirliği led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kocaelispor and 1.67 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Kocaelispor 2-1 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - 1st Division on 10/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 47%, draw 28%, Gençlerbirliği 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kocaelispor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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