Helmond Sport 1-3 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 10 Aug 2025

📅10/08/2025 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.6
No
39%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.73
2-3 Goals
34%
1.79
4-5 Goals
29%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.46
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
1/X
4%
12.65
X/1
13%
5.64
X/2
14%
6.04
X/X
18%
5.11
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
14%
3.85
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-5.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
61%
BTTS Yes
58%
+2.5pp
39%
BTTS No
42%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 38%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -18%
1.40/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.67
+14% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
19.2 Crosses 19.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Roda
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.14 xG 1.54
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
289 Passes 362
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.03.2025 Roda Roda 3-2 HT 1-2 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
21.10.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
23.12.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-3 HT 2-1 Roda Roda HOL2
11.08.2023 Roda Roda 4-1 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
10.02.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
12.11.2022 Roda Roda 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
1-3
AWAY Roda
0.91 xG 2.44
66% Ball Possession 34%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
462 Passes 210
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda got the better of Helmond Sport 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 36%) promised a tight game; Roda found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 66% of the ball to Roda's 34%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.91 to 2.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.83 for Roda.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs Roda?

Helmond Sport 1-3 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 34%, draw 30%, Roda 36%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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