Roda 3-2 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 11 Mar 2025

Roda
3-2 HT 1-2
Helmond Sport
📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Roda vs Helmond Sport Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.83
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
17%
4.98
X/2
10%
7.18
X/X
12%
4.97
2/1
8%
23.4
2/2
11%
4.99
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.15
Value flag · 2/X at 13.15 — our 11% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roda v Helmond Sport — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -27%
1.46/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.50
-10% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
19.4 Crosses 16.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Roda vs Helmond Sport Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Helmond Sport
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.77 xG 1.18
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 Passes 289
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.10.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
23.12.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-3 HT 2-1 Roda Roda HOL2
11.08.2023 Roda Roda 4-1 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
10.02.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
12.11.2022 Roda Roda 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
15.04.2022 Roda Roda 5-3 HT 3-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2

Roda 3-2 Helmond Sport — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
3-2
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.13 xG 1.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
207 Passes 281
67% Pass Accuracy 70%
25 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roda vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda squeezed past Helmond Sport 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Roda had 44% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 56%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.13 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Roda and 1.83 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of Roda vs Helmond Sport?

Roda 3-2 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Roda 43%, draw 29%, Helmond Sport 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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