Legia Varşova 3-1 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 10 Aug 2025

📅10/08/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.42
Draw
15%
4.49
Away
12%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.59
Over 2.5
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.51
6+ Goals
15%
5.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.68
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.55
X/1
20%
4.12
X/2
5%
13.95
X/X
6%
7.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
19.0
2/2
4%
10.5
2/X
5%
18.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.0 — our 7% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
66%
+6.6pp
15%
Draw
19%
-3.8pp
12%
Away Win
15%
-2.6pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.5pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.08/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.06
+14% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -32%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
23.6 Crosses 16.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Katowice
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
3.57 xG 1.12
57% Ball Possession 42%
26 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
444 Passes 322
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
53 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
26.04.2025 Katowice Katowice 1-3 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
27.10.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 4-1 HT 2-1 Katowice Katowice POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
3-1
AWAY Katowice
1.57 xG 0.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
371 Passes 237
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
40 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova beat Katowice 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 58% of the ball to Katowice's 42%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.57 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.00 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Katowice?

Legia Varşova 3-1 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 73%, draw 15%, Katowice 12%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
10 Aug 2025
18:30 Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow Analysis →