Almanya 4-0 Lüksemburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 10 Oct 2025

📅10/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
86%
1.11
Draw
9%
8.78
Away
5%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
24%
4.67
Over 2.5
76%
1.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
2.95
No
39%
1.35
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
10.75
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
41%
2.69
4-5 Goals
29%
2.27
6+ Goals
16%
3.02
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 2.69 — our 41% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
48%
1/2
1%
35.0
1/X
2%
35.0
X/1
29%
4.39
X/2
3%
35.0
X/X
3%
19.15
2/1
9%
33.0
2/2
1%
35.0
2/X
4%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
86%
Home Win
85%
+0.7pp
9%
Draw
8%
+0.4pp
5%
Away Win
6%
-1.0pp
24%
Under 2.5
18%
+5.8pp
76%
Over 2.5
82%
-5.8pp
61%
BTTS Yes
30%
+31.6pp
39%
BTTS No
70%
-31.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almanya EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Lüksemburg EU Bookmakers 9%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
3.30/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/3.82
+37% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -19%
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
487 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 76%
40.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.7
19.0 Crosses 9.9
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almanya
4-0
AWAY Lüksemburg
3.85 xG 0.01
84% Ball Possession 16%
31 Total Shots 1
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
735 Passes 87
91% Pass Accuracy 57%
64 Box Touches 1
31 Crosses 2
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almanya vs Lüksemburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almanya swept aside Lüksemburg 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Almanya as the likeliest winner at 86%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (76%) landed while both teams to score (61%) missed.

On the day, Almanya had 84% of the ball to Lüksemburg's 16%, shots finished 31-1, expected goals 3.85 to 0.01.

What was the final score of Almanya vs Lüksemburg?

Almanya 4-0 Lüksemburg in the World Cup Qualifiers on 10/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almanya vs Lüksemburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almanya win the most likely single outcome at about 86%, with the full match-result split Almanya 86%, draw 9%, Lüksemburg 5%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almanya), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almanya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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