ACR Messina 1-0 SSC Giugliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.16
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
11%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.0pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.0pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY SSC Giugliano EU Bookmakers 40%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.26/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.97
+9% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ACR Messina
2W-1D-1L
AWAY SSC Giugliano
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 SSC Giugliano SSC Giugliano 1-0 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
15.10.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-0 HT 1-0 SSC Giugliano SSC Giugliano İTC
01.02.2023 SSC Giugliano SSC Giugliano 2-2 HT 2-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
01.10.2022 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-0 HT 0-0 SSC Giugliano SSC Giugliano İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ACR Messina
1-0
AWAY SSC Giugliano
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ACR Messina vs SSC Giugliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ACR Messina squeezed past SSC Giugliano 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 24% / 40% — and on the day ACR Messina made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, ACR Messina had 48% of the ball to SSC Giugliano's 52%, shots finished 12-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, ACR Messina had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for ACR Messina and 0.75 for SSC Giugliano.

What was the final score of ACR Messina vs SSC Giugliano?

ACR Messina 1-0 SSC Giugliano in the Italy - Serie C on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ACR Messina vs SSC Giugliano?

Before kick-off our model rated an SSC Giugliano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split ACR Messina 36%, draw 24%, SSC Giugliano 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (SSC Giugliano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SSC Giugliano) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
10 Nov 2024
14:30 Rimini vs Sassari Torres Analysis →
14:30 Rossoblu Potenza vs Avellino Analysis →
17:00 Perugia vs Ternana Analysis →
17:00 Athletic Carpi vs Campobasso Analysis →
17:00 Milan II vs Arezzo Analysis →
17:00 Ascoli vs Pontedera Analysis →