Heidenheim 1-3 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 10 Nov 2024

Heidenheim
1-3 HT 0-2
Wolfsburg
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.78
6+ Goals
12%
16.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 27% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.1
1/2
9%
29.0
1/X
10%
12.75
X/1
11%
5.9
X/2
16%
5.34
X/X
10%
4.25
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
13%
3.55
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidenheim v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.53/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.33
-2% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
276 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 76%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
21.8 Crosses 18.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Wolfsburg
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.15 xG 1.65
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
316 Passes 424
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.01.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-1 HT 1-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
19.08.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
26.10.2016 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-1 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AFK
29.10.2014 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 4-1 HT 2-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK

Heidenheim 1-3 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-3
AWAY Wolfsburg
2.42 xG 1.50
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
422 Passes 189
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 23
33 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolfsburg saw off Heidenheim 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Wolfsburg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 65% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 35%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.42 to 1.50 — on chances, Heidenheim could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Wolfsburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Heidenheim and 2.00 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg?

Heidenheim 1-3 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 35%, draw 27%, Wolfsburg 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wolfsburg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wolfsburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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