Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.2
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.67
6+ Goals
12%
15.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.67 — our 27% vs market 21.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.07
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
15%
4.75
X/2
8%
6.38
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
13%
4.63
2/X
10%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-2.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
2.01/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.58
+7% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 75%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
19.4 Crosses 15.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Genk
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.61 xG 1.13
50% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
294 Passes 290
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
01.04.2024 Genk Genk 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.02.2024 Genk Genk 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
16.09.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
21.05.2023 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
14.05.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
4-0
AWAY Genk
2.28 xG 0.75
29% Ball Possession 71%
18 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
205 Passes 582
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
38 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise cruised past Genk 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Union Saint-Gilloise found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 29% of the ball to Genk's 71%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.28 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.67 for Genk.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk?

Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 40%, draw 30%, Genk 30%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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