Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense — Team-Based Signals
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Sao Paulo
BR1
2-1
HT 1-1
Atletico Paranaense
BR1
1-0
HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
4-0
HT 1-0
Atletico Paranaense
BR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Atletico Paranaense
BR1
Sao Paulo 2-1 Atletico Paranaense — Actual Match Statistics
Sao Paulo squeezed past Atletico Paranaense 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Sao Paulo had 78% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 22%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.43 to 0.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sao Paulo's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.67 for Atletico Paranaense.
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Sao Paulo 2-1 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 51%, draw 27%, Atletico Paranaense 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.