Fortaleza 3-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.03
6+ Goals
9%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 31% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.24
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.4
X/1
18%
3.82
X/2
8%
9.43
X/X
13%
4.62
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
14%
7.85
2/X
5%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.62/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.39
-6% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
23.3 Crosses 19.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.26 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 Passes 337
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.07.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
22.05.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-3 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRK
02.05.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRK
19.10.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
27.05.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
11.02.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
3-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.33 xG 0.19
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
275 Passes 450
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 7
13 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza cruised past Vasco da Gama 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (58%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Fortaleza had 40% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 60%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 2.33 to 0.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fortaleza and 1.00 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Vasco da Gama?

Fortaleza 3-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 48%, draw 26%, Vasco da Gama 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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