Cruzeiro 2-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.74
Over 2.5
38%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.04
6+ Goals
8%
18.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 35% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.55
X/1
20%
3.77
X/2
13%
10.05
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
11%
8.44
2/X
6%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-13.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+10.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
54%
+8.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
46%
-8.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.8pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 21%
-9% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.37/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.28
-11% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
24.3 Crosses 16.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Criciuma
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 0.72
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
424 Passes 156
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
32 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.07.2024 Criciuma Criciuma 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
04.09.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
28.05.2022 Criciuma Criciuma 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
09.11.2014 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
10.08.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
26.10.2013 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 5-3 HT 2-3 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
2-1
AWAY Criciuma
3.18 xG 1.08
63% Ball Possession 37%
26 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
514 Passes 260
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro squeezed past Criciuma 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 63% of the ball to Criciuma's 37%, shots finished 26-12, expected goals 3.18 to 1.08 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cruzeiro's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.00 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Criciuma?

Cruzeiro 2-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 43%, draw 28%, Criciuma 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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