Criciuma 1-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.54
Over 2.5
34%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.0pp
33%
Draw
30%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
61%
+5.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
39%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Criciuma EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +22%
1.26/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.14
+14% / -63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +97%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
22.8 Crosses 17.0
4.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Criciuma
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.29 xG 1.32
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
139 Passes 395
61% Pass Accuracy 81%
6 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.09.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
28.05.2022 Criciuma Criciuma 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
09.11.2014 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
10.08.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
26.10.2013 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 5-3 HT 2-3 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
08.08.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 1-2 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Criciuma
1-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.59 xG 1.08
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 10
223 Passes 541
73% Pass Accuracy 90%
21 Box Touches 30
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Criciuma vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Criciuma nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 33% / 29% — and on the day Criciuma made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Criciuma had 35% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 65%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.59 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Criciuma and 2.00 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Criciuma vs Cruzeiro?

Criciuma 1-0 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Criciuma vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Criciuma win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Criciuma 38%, draw 33%, Cruzeiro 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Criciuma), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Criciuma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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