Atletico Mineiro 2-4 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
19%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
36%
-4.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.1pp
39%
Away Win
35%
+3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 39%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.03/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.19
-1% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
14.5 Crosses 15.8
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Flamengo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.95 xG 1.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
356 Passes 416
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
30.07.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-2 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
16.10.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
14.07.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
23.06.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
19.06.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2-4
AWAY Flamengo
2.39 xG 2.13
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
392 Passes 352
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo beat Atletico Mineiro 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 30% / 39% — and on the day Flamengo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 52% of the ball to Flamengo's 48%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 2.39 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.00 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Flamengo?

Atletico Mineiro 2-4 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 31%, draw 30%, Flamengo 39%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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