Cuiaba 1-2 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.6pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.0pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.25/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.34
-3% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 82%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
22.2 Crosses 20.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cuiaba
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Botafogo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
0.83 xG 1.26
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
259 Passes 455
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 0-1 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
23.06.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
02.11.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 0-2 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
11.07.2022 Cuiaba Cuiaba 2-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
04.11.2020 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
28.10.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 0-1 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
1-2
AWAY Botafogo
1.57 xG 0.79
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
398 Passes 384
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 4
27 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo nicked a narrow win over Cuiaba 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Botafogo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cuiaba had 51% of the ball to Botafogo's 49%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 1.57 to 0.79 — on chances, Cuiaba could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cuiaba had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cuiaba and 0.17 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Botafogo?

Cuiaba 1-2 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cuiaba win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 37%, draw 30%, Botafogo 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cuiaba) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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